University of Maryland Global Campus Addressing Risks Analysis

Select a risk that one might encounter on a project.

Describe that risk.

Then, describe how you might mitigate that risk using either simulation (Crystal Ball) or calculation.

Examples:
You might have a risk that the duration of a task (develop the user interface) on the critical path has
been underestimated so you might ask your technical expert for the optimistic and pessimistic
durations and calculate T-E. You would then use Crystal Ball to determine the duration that would
represent a 90% confidence that the task could be accomplished in that time. Example 1 and the
first tab of the Calculations file illustrates this.
You might have a concern that all of the activities on your critical path have been under-estimated,
so you would calculate µ and σ and use the Z table or the excel formulas to determine the project
duration that gives you a 90% probability of completing within that time frame. You would then add
the difference between your original duration and the 90% duration as the schedule
reserve. Note: if you choose this example, use at least three, but no more than five, tasks in your
calculations. Example 2 and the second tab of the Calculations file illustrate this.
Note, I do not expect you to provide examples as elaborate as these, but I did want to illustrate the
process involved.