University of Maryland Global Campus Addressing Risks Analysis

Select a risk that one might encounter on a project.

Describe that risk.

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Then, describe how you might mitigate that risk using either simulation (Crystal Ball) or calculation.

  • Perform the simulation or calculations to provide 90% confidence that the risk will not occur.  Add the additional information (such as minimum or maximum values) that you might need to do this.
  • Describe any problems you encountered in completing this topic.
  • Examples:
    You might have a risk that the duration of a task (develop the user interface) on the critical path has
    been underestimated so you might ask your technical expert for the optimistic and pessimistic
    durations and calculate T-E. You would then use Crystal Ball to determine the duration that would
    represent a 90% confidence that the task could be accomplished in that time. Example 1 and the
    first tab of the Calculations file illustrates this.
    You might have a concern that all of the activities on your critical path have been under-estimated,
    so you would calculate µ and σ and use the Z table or the excel formulas to determine the project
    duration that gives you a 90% probability of completing within that time frame. You would then add
    the difference between your original duration and the 90% duration as the schedule
    reserve. Note: if you choose this example, use at least three, but no more than five, tasks in your
    calculations. Example 2 and the second tab of the Calculations file illustrate this.
    Note, I do not expect you to provide examples as elaborate as these, but I did want to illustrate the
    process involved.


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